::R@keta >> Generation Web Vol.2>>
AirGuru »
Stenly (11:52:21): Krasnej graf, takhle prehledne jsem ta data hledal uz dlouho! Go Nuclear!
Stenly »
Stenly (16:32:51):
The combination of 1) evolved mental characteristics, 2) poor education and training, and 3) a dysfunctional institutional architecture, combined with a) inherent uncertainty and wrong predictions, and b) the inherent difficulty of adapting amid the stormy chaos of events where the simplest things are hard and failure is ubiquitous, creates a series of vicious feedback loops.
The combination of 1) evolved mental characteristics, 2) poor education and training, and 3) a dysfunctional institutional architecture, combined with a) inherent uncertainty and wrong predictions, and b) the inherent difficulty of adapting amid the stormy chaos of events where the simplest things are hard and failure is ubiquitous, creates a series of vicious feedback loops.
Stenly »
asi to nikdo neprecte, je to tezky cteni a misty trochu grafomanie, ale skryva se tam spousta pokladu ohledne rizeni komplexnich instituci.. je to blog Dominica Cummingse, jak ho hraje ten osklivej herec ve filmu Brexit (Cummings je jeste osklivejsi)
Barriers of entry are so high in politics that there is little competition and the system is hard for outsiders to disrupt. It is implicit in our method of parliamentary democracy that the contest between the parties will roughly serve the public interest as parties are incentivised to correct the obvious errors of their opponents, offer the public what they want, and thereby gain power, so that atavistic instincts are roughly channelled in ways that help society. This works in the sense that, at least where democratic institutions and the rule of law are embedded, elections stop parties and their leaders from becoming too extreme in the sense of undermining the basic principles of a market-based democracy. However, this incentive system is very indirect and ineffective beyond this basic function.
https://dominiccummings.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/
...
MPs and officials have to make constant forecasts but have little idea about how to make them, how the statistics and computer models underlying these forecasts work, or how to judge the reliability of their own views. A recent survey of 100 MPs by the Royal Statistical Society found that only 40% of MPs correctly answered a simple probability question (much simpler than the type of problem they routinely opine on): ‘what is the probability of getting two heads from flipping a fair coin twice?’ Despite their failures on a beginner question, about three-quarters nevertheless said they are confident in their ability to deal with numbers. Issues such as ‘how financial models contributed to the 2008 crisis’ or ‘intelligence and genetics’ cannot be understood in even a basic way without some statistical knowledge, such as normal distribution and standard deviation, yet most MPs do not understand much simpler concepts than these. They also have little knowledge of evolutionary systems (biological or cultural), and little understanding of technology. (How many of those at a senior level dealing with Ebola discussions or financial market disasters recently have any idea about the topology of ‘scale free networks’, cf. HERE? The basic concepts, as opposed to detailed modelling, are not hard to grasp but they do not appear in the typical education of ministers or senior officials.)
je toho tam mraky a spousta odkazu na skvelou literaturu...
velka cast je extremne detailni popis dysfunkcnosti komplexnich byrokracii
Barriers of entry are so high in politics that there is little competition and the system is hard for outsiders to disrupt. It is implicit in our method of parliamentary democracy that the contest between the parties will roughly serve the public interest as parties are incentivised to correct the obvious errors of their opponents, offer the public what they want, and thereby gain power, so that atavistic instincts are roughly channelled in ways that help society. This works in the sense that, at least where democratic institutions and the rule of law are embedded, elections stop parties and their leaders from becoming too extreme in the sense of undermining the basic principles of a market-based democracy. However, this incentive system is very indirect and ineffective beyond this basic function.
https://dominiccummings.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/
...
MPs and officials have to make constant forecasts but have little idea about how to make them, how the statistics and computer models underlying these forecasts work, or how to judge the reliability of their own views. A recent survey of 100 MPs by the Royal Statistical Society found that only 40% of MPs correctly answered a simple probability question (much simpler than the type of problem they routinely opine on): ‘what is the probability of getting two heads from flipping a fair coin twice?’ Despite their failures on a beginner question, about three-quarters nevertheless said they are confident in their ability to deal with numbers. Issues such as ‘how financial models contributed to the 2008 crisis’ or ‘intelligence and genetics’ cannot be understood in even a basic way without some statistical knowledge, such as normal distribution and standard deviation, yet most MPs do not understand much simpler concepts than these. They also have little knowledge of evolutionary systems (biological or cultural), and little understanding of technology. (How many of those at a senior level dealing with Ebola discussions or financial market disasters recently have any idea about the topology of ‘scale free networks’, cf. HERE? The basic concepts, as opposed to detailed modelling, are not hard to grasp but they do not appear in the typical education of ministers or senior officials.)
je toho tam mraky a spousta odkazu na skvelou literaturu...
velka cast je extremne detailni popis dysfunkcnosti komplexnich byrokracii
Stenly »
skvelej rozhovor s byvalym pakistanskym velvyslancem ve Washingtonu
https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/first-person/truth-about-us-war-in-afghanistan-husain-haqqani-interview/
https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/first-person/truth-about-us-war-in-afghanistan-husain-haqqani-interview/
Stenly »
https://denikn.cz/296299/necas-byl-jsem-pilot-ktery-zabranil-narazu-do-zeme-kritizoval-jsem-dalajlamismus-abych-zachranil-vztahy-s-cinou/?cst=98550978286a861d86ecfe8ea24dce9465e28bbb
Stenly »
Former U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan James Dobbins on a possible peace deal after more than 18 years of war.
https://player.fm/series/fps-first-person/a-truce-with-the-taliban
- o tom peace dealu tam nic neni, ale je to skvely shrnuti valky v afghanistanu, vyborne to doplnuje a opravuje to co jsem tu psal
https://player.fm/series/fps-first-person/a-truce-with-the-taliban
- o tom peace dealu tam nic neni, ale je to skvely shrnuti valky v afghanistanu, vyborne to doplnuje a opravuje to co jsem tu psal
Stenly »
https://medium.com/@dolanecon/does-the-government-that-governs-least-really-govern-best-142106728cba
Stenly »
AirGuru (23:38:24): konecne jsem se k tomu dostal, presne timhle se prece proslavil Jordan Peterson a jeste mu za to nadavaji do fasistu :D
takze vlastne toho borca z googlu vyhodili z prace za to, ze citoval vedeckou studii a pouzil u toho mozek.. a soud to podrzel!
takze vlastne toho borca z googlu vyhodili z prace za to, ze citoval vedeckou studii a pouzil u toho mozek.. a soud to podrzel!
Stenly »
aktualne LOL at Iowa, LOL at impeachment a LOL at impotence demokratu
vcera kongreasmani po state of union skandovali USA! USA! USA! to vypada ze jim ten gimmick s impeachmentem prinesl fakt hodne bodu :D at je Trump jakejkoliv, tohl je ubohost a strasne si je maze na chleba.. a pritom takova karikaura.. neuveritelny
(youtube video)
vcera kongreasmani po state of union skandovali USA! USA! USA! to vypada ze jim ten gimmick s impeachmentem prinesl fakt hodne bodu :D at je Trump jakejkoliv, tohl je ubohost a strasne si je maze na chleba.. a pritom takova karikaura.. neuveritelny
(youtube video)
Stenly »
http://ceskapozice.lidovky.cz/recenze/odmitnuti-minulosti-redukuje-cloveka-na-biologicke-procesy.A171204_114428_pozice-recenze_lube
Stenly »
https://hlidacipes.org/byvaly-velvyslanec-drulak-mluvit-o-lidskych-pravech-v-zahranicni-politice-nema-smysl-dedictvi-havla-je-treba-odmitnout/
Stenly »
na diplomatku docela nediplomatickej rozhovor hehe
https://video.info.cz/strunc/iranu-se-neda-verit-ale-nepodcenujme-ho-jeho-kroky-jsou-velmi-promyslene-rika-hybaskova-44218.html
https://video.info.cz/strunc/iranu-se-neda-verit-ale-nepodcenujme-ho-jeho-kroky-jsou-velmi-promyslene-rika-hybaskova-44218.html
Stenly »
https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/humanitarian-assistance-has-a-terrorism-problem-can-it-be-resolved/
Stenly »
na alarm prekvapivy mnozstvi zdravyho rozumu hajaha.. teda zejmena v prvni pulce, cim delsi ten clanek je, tim vic fantaziruje a lze s tim intenzivneji nesouhlasit
https://a2larm.cz/2020/01/prumysl-neni-prirozeny-nepritel-levice-ani-v-dobe-klimaticke-krize/
https://a2larm.cz/2020/01/prumysl-neni-prirozeny-nepritel-levice-ani-v-dobe-klimaticke-krize/
Stenly »
pri vrazde je chytrejsi pouzit trochu zajetou simku nez novou.. nebo spis zadnou
https://denikn.cz/273444/studio-n-v-patrani-po-vrazich-kuciaka-pomohl-facebook-i-operatori-poslechnete-si-po-jakych-stopach-sli-policiste/
https://denikn.cz/273444/studio-n-v-patrani-po-vrazich-kuciaka-pomohl-facebook-i-operatori-poslechnete-si-po-jakych-stopach-sli-policiste/
Stenly »
tenhle clanek se ti asi bude libit haha
https://onezero.medium.com/how-science-fiction-imagined-the-2020s-f8e98a5bc729
https://onezero.medium.com/how-science-fiction-imagined-the-2020s-f8e98a5bc729